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Ford Performance

It was a huge night full of The Big Ones for the Ford cars upfront where they dominated each and every stage but tonight’s Cup race at Daytona was about Harrison Burton in the No.21 for Wood Brothers Racing. 

He was the one who just got away with his first career Cup win, his first Playoffs opportunity and also his team’s 100th race win – even though he won’t be coming back there next season with Josh Berry already confirmed to replace Harrison due to his underwhelming regular race results since he first replaced Matt DiBenedetto back in 2022. 

But that doesn’t mean he isn’t that bad in Cup after all when you look back at some good Top 5/10s before. He was battling mid-pack from the start before a series of yellows particularly throughout Stage 3 went his way with lots of track position & extra adjustments on pit road. All he had to do is get that race lead ahead of the final lap restart & hold off through the checkered flag and there he is holding off Kyle Busch (No.8 Childress Chevy) to get that breakthrough moment he was hoping for in a race that was so unpredictable twice a year at this same Daytona race track.

Wishing Harrison all the best wherever he ends up next year as it’s his night tonight in victory lane.

Shoutout to Cody Ware following a brilliant night to bring his No.15 Rick Ware Ford home in 4th, so does Parker Retzlaff in 7th for the part-time No. 62 Beard Motorsports Chevy; Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric continues to be so good at the big tracks in 9th for Kaulig also in a Chevy & there was bunch of Toyotas filling in the Top 10 with Christopher Bell (No.20 Joe Gibbs) in 3rd behind Kyle and Harrison.

One more regular race now to go before the Playoffs going into the Labor Day weekend next week at Darlington Raceway with another two special shoutouts – Leigh Diffey in his debut at NBC’s new lead NASCAR Cup caller & his co-commentator and former NASCAR racer Jeff Burton who also celebrated his son’s big breakthrough moment from upstairs.

As said, his time at Cup for the most part hasn’t been that great other than a handful of Top 10s prior to this as we would’ve liked but he’s grateful for the sponsors backing him every step of the way like Dex Imaging.

Again, I’d like to see him end up at Rick Ware Racing & stay being a two-car team since Justin Haley is most likely going to Spire Motorsports to replace Corey LaJoie despite Haley being around here for one year but he’s a top asset to them anyway with lots of $$$ or a returning top Xfinity ride would do it if Harrison wants it – it’s up to him.

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There’s a bit more to it in RFK Racing’s 3rd charter venture this week since they will be expected to get a significant sponsorship and financial boost from Kroger any minute from now, with Tad Geschickter also expected to leave JTG Daugherty Racing as part-owner at season’s end who is currently sponsored by them right now thanks to Tad’s business links. 

Should RFK purchase a 3rd charter regardless of the sport’s new charter model from 2025-31, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Ryan Preece is the primary candidate to fill in the newly-created RFK 3rd Cup car for Ford full-time. 

He too is currently without a job for next season once SHR shuts down come November with three of his other SHR Cup team-mates already secured new rides elsewhere, such as Josh Berry at Wood Brothers, Noah Gragson at Front Row and Chase Briscoe at Joe Gibbs Racing. Yes, his race results here at Cup haven’t exactly set the world alight since he first replaced Cole Custer in the No.41 Ford Mustang last season, but then that’s more a team issue who is on its last legs ahead of SHR’s shutdown as we know it.

The question is though where they could purchase that 3rd charter from? They can use the Kroger money to fulfil that expansion worthwhile if this sponsorship deal comes out true.

One would say Kaulig Racing when the team’s owners look to buy 51% stake of Richard Childress Racing but that’s for Richard to consider since he’s 78 right now while we don’t know what JTG will look like despite Ricky Stenhouse Jr. recently signed a contract extension there when Tad walks out the door.

If it wasn’t for these two teams, why not enter Rick Ware Racing?

Rick Ware Racing

First of all, they’re currently happy running two Ford Mustang Cup cars right now with Justin Haley currently in the No.51 alongside Kaz Grala and the returning Cody Ware sharing in the other No.15 team. 

With Haley onboard, RWR has grown so much so far in 2024 and you gotta thank him for fulfilling the team’s much-needed potential. But Haley is also in demand with the likes of Spire and even Hendrick & it would be very difficult for him to say no going into next year as Haley is expected to replace Corey LaJoie in the No.7 Chevy alongside the chance to work with veteran crew chief Rodney Childers.

With that being said, RWR could not only take a significant financial package from Spire or Hendrick for Haley but also give the one charter away to RFK under a season-long lease for 2025. 

Good for them to get even more $$$ but how are they going to use it? The plan for RWR would be is run one full-time car (The No.51) while the 2nd car likely to be scaled back on a part-time basis. Not even the return of Grala is a guarantee since he doesn’t have the same calibre as Haley & neither does Rick’s son Cody as the best possible scenario is to get a good enough replacement for Haley in LaJoie. 

Then come 2026, RWR could either get it back or see themselves get a significant new partner involved like Gordon Smith & Brad Daugherty or Haas if RFK wishes to purchase one permanently without them having to pay $40 million to get a completely new second charter.

Although I wouldn’t be too surprised if RWR chooses to leave altogether at some point – should they make that RFK charter lease as a permanent sale while they sell the other remaining charter like to Haas or some other new Cup team. 

Post-Notes

RFK Racing is high flying once again with two Cup cars under co-owner Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher but they would still like to wish more success and a third charter with a third full-time Cup car is the perfect next step to bridge their way back up front like it once was before.

Another new big sponsor will be a great get with Preece set for one last opportunity to prove himself in a more good Ford Mustang race car being provided by Roush & Keselowski unlike SHR. 

For now, that mystery 3rd charter seller or leaser for RFK remains to be seen with the Kroger money.

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Image Reference: TaurusEmerald via Wikipedia, CC BY 4.0 International

First of all, having Justin Haley onboard with Rick Ware Racing has made such a huge difference in the No.51 Ford Mustang so far this season. He had two Top 10s RWR couldn’t believe they could do it on top of some normal Top 15-20 finishes, such at Darlington back in May as well as Gateway a month later. But that doesn’t mean the silly season rumor talk is gonna take the focus off him when it comes to his future, even though he came to RWR under a multi-year contract from Kaulig Racing at the end of last season. 

Sure, if RWR wants him to stay then that’s fine as he wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t long-term. However, you got some established Cup teams who are way more ambitious and also has lots more money to bring out the check book for him. 

Now that’s something RWR cannot refuse when Spire Motorsports would like to have him back as a full-time driver in the No.7 Chevy Camaro next year with the opportunity of working with veteran crew chief Rodney Childers. If not Spire, even Hendrick Motorsports would be a good get when they would need a bit of a fresh change and Haley would be the perfect replacement for Alex Bowman in the No.48, with Bowman going to Spire.

No matter what happens, it’s going to be a huge hole to fill for someone whose owners invested a lot into bringing Haley onboard from an established two-car Cup team like Kaulig. But again, things come and go you know as maybe RWR can use the Haley contract windfall to improve their Cup equipment – that’s what matters to continue that progress where Haley has built this & left off at the end of the day. 

You could also think Corey LaJoie would go the other way but then I think he is someone who likes to win races, having made some stunning moments for Spire over these last few years at this team wants to move onto the next level without him. Maybe a top Xfinity or even Trucks team would it, so he can enjoy racing a bit more competitively upfront every week.

The same goes to Ryan Preece who is still on the outlook for a ride next year once Stewart-Haas Racing shuts down after the Phoenix season finale race in early November. He’d be a great get at RFK Racing either as a part-time driver to begin with while racing Xfinity/Trucks again also part-time throughout the season like he did two years ago or even full-time depending on their 3rd charter hunt thanks to Kroger, so he can be kept within the Ford Performance family. He hasn’t been so inconsistent for the most part since last year in the No.41 Ford for Stewart-Haas but then that’s a team’s problem who no longer feel they can compete with other top four-car teams anymore as seen in recent seasons.

With that being said, the No.15 would go to Kaz Grala full-time since he had some good results so far this year on a part-time basis, and Cody Ware coming back to replace Haley in his formerly usual spot in the No.51 prior to his suspension for most of last season before he was reinstated because he’s related to his father Rick. 

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Today was a huge day for reigning Xfinity Series champion Cole Custer not just off-track but on-track as well having announced his return to full-time Cup racing next year with the newly-created single car Haas Factory team while he scored pole position for the Pennzoil 250 in the meantime earlier in the day, although he was a bit unfortunate towards the end when it comes to the race thanks to a last-lap winning move by Stewart-Haas Ford team-mate Riley Herbst in the No.98 for the win.

It’s been a while to see the Brickyard go left once again after a few years of using the infield road course layout with Cole having an excellent Top 5 run all along, even though a few yellows might held him back a bit at times in the early portions but not so much thanks to these pit road adjustments including that last stage restart where he re-worked his way back up front.

A win though would’ve been perfect to sum up how far he’s come since stepping back into the Xfinity Series arena again last year in order to try and be up front every race weekend off the back of his 2025 plans to begin the weekend. He endured a tough first few years as a first-time Cup driver also within Stewart-Haas organisation – despite winning the Rookie of the Year award including his one & only Playoffs run so far thanks to his win at Kentucky during July back in 2020 – before regular inconsistent results over the next two years saw Ryan Preece took over the No.41 Cup seat at the end of the 2022 season.

Now he’s set to reprise the No.41 once again at Cup level for a scaled down Haas organisation from 2025 via his dad’s connections in running the day-to-day NASCAR business & will no doubt get significant backing from Haas’s engineering division. Not only that, Haas will keep on using Ford engines but this time they will form a technical alliance partnership with RFK Racing other than continuing to build their own cars just for its own two Xfinity Series teams. We’ll see how this goes where there would be potential for RFK & Haas to team up together in order to go three Cup cars if Cole goes well again.

In the meantime, he has unfinished business ahead in the hope of winning more including the upcoming Playoffs so he can look forward upon his return to Cup in 2025 with potentially another Xfinity Series championship on his belt.

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One of Dale Jr’s mentees Josh Berry is now set to replace Harrison Burton in the No.21 Ford Mustang for Wood Brothers Racing from next season off the back of Stewart-Haas Racing’s shutdown. He will still carry the No.4 Ford in the meantime as planned up until SHR’s final ever race come early November at Phoenix Raceway in Arizona as his rookie Cup season isn’t bad so far in 19th and also leading the rookie-of-the-year standings too with some great Top 5 and 10 finishes including 2 x 3rd at Darlington (May) and New Hampshire (two weeks ago) going into the Chicago Street Course (Round 20 of 36) this weekend.

He is someone who has an excellent race pedigree as Dale Jr. discovered in his eyes when he gave him a chance at JR Motorsports back in 2022-23 at Xfinity Series level before Josh accepted the offer to replace the now-retired Kevin Harvick at SHR this year and then the organization suddenly ran its course with the announcement of SHR shutting down at season’s end a few months later. I’m glad though that Wood Brothers also needed a new direction and they somehow found a great driver who can hopefully get back to their best with Berry behind the wheel after Harrison Burton just couldn’t show the consistency they were after over the last few years despite bringing his own sponsorship via Dex Imaging. WBR still has yet to taste their 100th Cup win in their decades-long existence after Ryan Blaney last won there for the team’s 99th win at Pocono in back mid-2017 before he went on to do even better at Team Penske but time will tell with Berry in the No.21 Mustang being supported by Ford the whole way through alongside the manufacturer’s subsidiary sponsorship of Motorcraft & Quick Lane Auto Repairs.

So far the No.14 of Chase Briscoe has already been signed up to replace the retiring Martin Truex Jr. last week at Joe Gibbs Racing that will also begin at the start of next season in the No.19 Toyota Camry while Ryan Preece and Noah Gragson are still on the lookout for other rides.Now Gragson wouldn’t be short of suitors since his performances have been solid since his return from suspension in the No.10 where he will likely end up at Front Row Motorsports unlike the No.41’s Preece who would most likely drop down to Xfinity and/or Trucks level instead of trying to just stay there with Kaulig or Rick Ware Racing.

Plus, If you’re wondering what’s going to happen with SHR’s 4th and final charter? Well, It’s not going anywhere after all with Gene Haas keeping one for just himself under the newly created Haas Factory Racing organization by operating one Cup car and two Xfinity Series teams. Tony Stewart won’t have any involvement at all as he will be focusing on his drag racing team as well as his young family with his wife and veteran drag racer Leah Pruett expecting their first child together (a baby boy) this November. Who will be part of Team Haas? It will be easy to say Cole Custer whose dad is part of Haas’s management team while they will keep on running Fords, although it remains to be seen which alliance Haas will link up with at a later date.

I think though in my opinion that Brad Keselowski via his co-owned RFK Racing team (No.6 car) would love to team up with Haas together by turning from two cars into three under RFK-Haas Racing without him having to buy another charter that is worth $40 million nowadays. But again you never know and it would allow Ford to have a proper young driver pathway like Toyota is doing with Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing where Keselowski would love to have one of his drivers succeed at Xfinity level before being given the chance to race for him at the top level someday once his driving days are eventually over.

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In April 2023, Tickford Racing’s Cam Waters made his way from Melbourne to the paper clip short track called Martinsville Speedway over in the US – having taken a closer look of Riley Herbst’s No.98 Ford Mustang Xfinity Series race car from Stewart-Haas Racing. Then he came back to America again as a spectator during the 2023 regular season finale at Daytona a few months ago and here he is now ready to expand his love of NASCAR this time as a race car driver where he will be returning to Martinsville next weekend by driving the No.66 Ford F-150 for ThorSport Racing in the Craftsman Truck Series.

It’s so fitting for Waters to begin his NASCAR debut at a place he first came there a year ago & there wouldn’t be any issues at all to begin his oval racing career since he will be racing on a short track/0.5 mile oval. If he wants to run superspeedways at some point, no problem. But he can go take part in the season-opening ARCA Menards Series round at Daytona in February next year (surely that won’t affect his Supercars commitments short-term) in order to pass the rookie orientation test & race on the big tracks as Shane Van Gisbergen (currently at Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series while still being tied up under Trackhouse) had to do 1-2 months ago regardless of his race result (an early crash sadly saw him limping down in 29th).

Looking at Waters’s ambitions with NASCAR, he’s almost age 30 with another good 10-15 years left as we also know that he is on RFK Racing’s radar who might as well give him a partial Cup ride later this year in the 3rd No.60 Ford Mustang race car for three races – most likely in the road course events like the Chicago Street Course & maybe one short oval one. He’d be a great long-term replacement there should the co-boss Brad Keselowski eventually calls it a day in the No.6 team or the team can see the potential 3rd charter happening to expand into three full-time Cup cars someday, but Xfinity would be a great start with a good midfield team like RSS & AM Racing who can give him the resources to run upfront and win races from there.

Now looking at his Supercars record, it’s not bad having finished 2nd twice via the Drivers’ Standings in the Supercars championship before back in 2020 and 2022 to both NZ drivers who now ply their trade in the US such as Scott McLaughlin (Dick Johnson Racing, now at Team Penske in IndyCar) and SVG (Triple Eight, now racing NASCARs full-time as above) respectively. Don’t forget he also finished 2nd twice at the Bathurst 1000 back in 2020-21 as well. Yes, he has won a couple of races there before but still has unfinished business though after an up and down start so far this Supercars season despite a good qualifying run last weekend at Albert Park that saw him win the pole award for Race 2. A Bathurst 1000 win would be great while catching up with the drivers’ standings in the hope of at least walking away with one series championship before he can think real big full-time in the US. For now, we wish him good luck as a Top 15-20 run would be a great start on debut.

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I’d like to see Preece being given a go at Rick Ware Racing full-time in the No.15 first next year if SHR chooses to keep Custer in the No.41 for another year; as long as SHR can help RWR a bit more with technical support on their equipment & hopefully post some good results on-track in order to avoid charter repossession by the sport.

When it comes to the long-term makeup though at SHR, I think Harvick will get a one-year extension in the No.4 car going into 2024 and then retire in time for the next TV rights deal in 2025 & be an analyst with Clint Bowyer & Mike Joy/Adam Alexander (if Joy retires) during the first half of the season for FOX/FS1.

His replacement? I know Hailie Deegan did so well on her Xfinity debut at Las Vegas last week but we’ll wait and see if Ford will give her a full-time Xfinity opportunity next year & try to post more Top 10-15 results on a regular basis after two full years at Trucks level.

Meanwhile, Riley Herbst still needs more time to challenge upfront every week in order to boost his chances of winning races in the No.98 SHR Xfinity car. Now he may have sponsorship but his average/inconsistent results tells me that he is not ready to take the mantle from Harvick or Almirola at this stage and then hope for the best because SHR is a top-notch team wanting to challenge for the championship. So another two years at least would hopefully see Herbst be on the same standard as Custer and Briscoe when they were racing Xfinitys really well at the time before it’s safe to say that he can finally proceed to Cup racing.

Although I do see him as a like-for-like replacement for Aric Almirola in the No.10 car, who also brings similar strong sponsorship packages like Herbst as he’s also into his 40s like Harvick; but again, consistent results will be his major issue to solve over the next year or two, otherwise he will have to try his luck elsewhere.

Now who would be the best person to step up into Harvick’s No.4 car if Deegan is either not ready, gone into Almirola’s No.10 car instead of Herbst or is poached by Toyota or Chevy? Maybe convince Erik Jones to join SHR? He too is doing so well at Petty-GMS with a win last month that ended a long-running drought of eight years for the No.43 team in victory lane, despite missing the playoffs. He brings so much talent to deliver top-half finishes with the right equipment where he was well treated by Toyota Racing during his earlier days with a Truck Series title at Kyle Busch Motorsports, as well as finishing 2nd in Xfinity level back in 2016 and also won a couple of Cup races here and there at Joe Gibbs Racing before he was replaced by Christopher Bell last year. Now Erik may have signed another contact extension with Petty-GMS lately but should Harvick retire, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see SHR throwing out some money to get him onboard.

And although Ross Chastain would be a good get from Trackhouse who is doing outstanding right now, but again SHR can develop their own Ross in Ryan Preece & help him find a full-time ride with vaulable equipment, while Custer will still be driving Cup cars for long time regardless of where he will end up either in the No.41 car for a fourth straight season or being shipped to their satellite team alongside Cody Ware at RWR.

All eyes on the long-term futures of the No.4 and No.10 Stewart-Haas cars going into 2024 and 2025, as the team prepares for life without Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola once they both hang up their racing career.

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